.. DO NOT EDIT. .. THIS FILE WAS AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED BY SPHINX-GALLERY. .. TO MAKE CHANGES, EDIT THE SOURCE PYTHON FILE: .. "examples_regression/2-advanced-analysis/plot_timeseries_enbpi.py" .. LINE NUMBERS ARE GIVEN BELOW. .. only:: html .. note:: :class: sphx-glr-download-link-note Click :ref:`here ` to download the full example code .. rst-class:: sphx-glr-example-title .. _sphx_glr_examples_regression_2-advanced-analysis_plot_timeseries_enbpi.py: ================================================================== Time series: example of the EnbPI technique ================================================================== Note: in this example, we use the following terms employed in the scientific literature: - `alpha` is equivalent to `1 - confidence_level`. It can be seen as a *risk level* - *calibrate* and *calibration* are equivalent to *conformalize* and *conformalization*. — This example uses :class:`~mapie.time_series_regression.TimeSeriesRegressor` to estimate prediction intervals associated with time series forecast. It follows [6]. We use here the Victoria electricity demand dataset used in the book "Forecasting: Principles and Practice" by R. J. Hyndman and G. Athanasopoulos. The electricity demand features daily and weekly seasonalities and is impacted by the temperature, considered here as a exogeneous variable. A Random Forest model is already fitted on data. The hyper-parameters are optimized with a :class:`~sklearn.model_selection.RandomizedSearchCV` using a sequential :class:`~sklearn.model_selection.TimeSeriesSplit` cross validation, in which the training set is prior to the validation set. The best model is then feeded into :class:`~mapie.time_series_regression.TimeSeriesRegressor` to estimate the associated prediction intervals. We compare two approaches: with or without calling ``update`` at every step, following [6]. The results show coverage closer to the target, along with narrower PIs. .. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 32-241 .. image-sg:: /examples_regression/2-advanced-analysis/images/sphx_glr_plot_timeseries_enbpi_001.png :alt: EnbPI, without update Coverage:1.000 Width:0.616, EnbPI with update Coverage:1.000 Width:0.601 :srcset: /examples_regression/2-advanced-analysis/images/sphx_glr_plot_timeseries_enbpi_001.png :class: sphx-glr-single-img .. rst-class:: sphx-glr-script-out Out: .. code-block:: none EnbPI, with no update, width optimization WARNING:root:The option to optimize beta (minimize interval width) is not working and needs to be fixed. See more details in https://github.com/scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE/issues/588 EnbPI with update, width optimization WARNING:root:The option to optimize beta (minimize interval width) is not working and needs to be fixed. See more details in https://github.com/scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE/issues/588 Coverage / prediction interval width mean for TimeSeriesRegressor: EnbPI without any update:1.000, 0.616 Coverage / prediction interval width mean for TimeSeriesRegressor: EnbPI with update:1.000, 0.601 | .. code-block:: default import warnings from typing import cast import numpy as np import pandas as pd from matplotlib import pylab as plt from scipy.stats import randint from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor from sklearn.model_selection import RandomizedSearchCV, TimeSeriesSplit from numpy.typing import NDArray from mapie.metrics.regression import ( regression_coverage_score, regression_mean_width_score, ) from mapie.regression import TimeSeriesRegressor from mapie.subsample import BlockBootstrap warnings.simplefilter("ignore") # Load input data and feature engineering url_file = ( "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE/" + "master/examples/data/demand_temperature.csv" ) demand_df = pd.read_csv(url_file, parse_dates=True, index_col=0) demand_df["Date"] = pd.to_datetime(demand_df.index) demand_df["Weekofyear"] = demand_df.Date.dt.isocalendar().week.astype("int64") demand_df["Weekday"] = demand_df.Date.dt.isocalendar().day.astype("int64") demand_df["Hour"] = demand_df.index.hour n_lags = 5 for hour in range(1, n_lags): demand_df[f"Lag_{hour}"] = demand_df["Demand"].shift(hour) # Train/validation/test split num_test_steps = 24 * 7 demand_train = demand_df.iloc[:-num_test_steps, :].copy() demand_test = demand_df.iloc[-num_test_steps:, :].copy() features = ["Weekofyear", "Weekday", "Hour", "Temperature"] + [ f"Lag_{hour}" for hour in range(1, n_lags) ] X_train = demand_train.loc[ ~np.any(demand_train[features].isnull(), axis=1), features ] y_train = demand_train.loc[X_train.index, "Demand"] X_test = demand_test.loc[:, features] y_test = demand_test["Demand"] perform_hyperparameters_search = False if perform_hyperparameters_search: # CV parameter search n_iter = 100 n_splits = 5 tscv = TimeSeriesSplit(n_splits=n_splits) random_state = 59 rf_model = RandomForestRegressor(random_state=random_state) rf_params = {"max_depth": randint(2, 30), "n_estimators": randint(10, 100)} cv_obj = RandomizedSearchCV( rf_model, param_distributions=rf_params, n_iter=n_iter, cv=tscv, scoring="neg_root_mean_squared_error", random_state=random_state, verbose=0, n_jobs=-1, ) cv_obj.fit(X_train, y_train) model = cv_obj.best_estimator_ else: # Model: Random Forest previously optimized with a cross-validation model = RandomForestRegressor( max_depth=10, n_estimators=50, random_state=59 ) # Estimate prediction intervals on test set with best estimator alpha = 0.05 cv_mapietimeseries = BlockBootstrap( n_resamplings=10, n_blocks=10, overlapping=False, random_state=59 ) mapie_enpbi = TimeSeriesRegressor( model, method="enbpi", cv=cv_mapietimeseries, agg_function="mean", n_jobs=-1, ) print("EnbPI, with no update, width optimization") mapie_enpbi = mapie_enpbi.fit(X_train, y_train) y_pred_n_update_enbpi, y_pis_n_update_enbpi = mapie_enpbi.predict( X_test, confidence_level=1-alpha, ensemble=True, optimize_beta=True ) coverage_n_update_enbpi = regression_coverage_score( y_test, y_pis_n_update_enbpi )[0] width_n_update_enbpi = regression_mean_width_score( y_pis_n_update_enbpi )[0] print("EnbPI with update, width optimization") mapie_enpbi = mapie_enpbi.fit(X_train, y_train) y_pred_update_enbpi = np.zeros(y_pred_n_update_enbpi.shape) y_pis_update_enbpi = np.zeros(y_pis_n_update_enbpi.shape) step_size = 1 ( y_pred_update_enbpi[:step_size], y_pis_update_enbpi[:step_size, :, :], ) = mapie_enpbi.predict( X_test.iloc[:step_size, :], confidence_level=1-alpha, ensemble=True, optimize_beta=True ) for step in range(step_size, len(X_test), step_size): mapie_enpbi.update( X_test.iloc[(step - step_size):step, :], y_test.iloc[(step - step_size):step], ) ( y_pred_update_enbpi[step:step + step_size], y_pis_update_enbpi[step:step + step_size, :, :], ) = mapie_enpbi.predict( X_test.iloc[step:(step + step_size), :], confidence_level=1-alpha, ensemble=True, ) coverage_update_enbpi = regression_coverage_score( y_test, y_pis_update_enbpi )[0] width_update_enbpi = regression_mean_width_score( y_pis_update_enbpi )[0] # Print results print( "Coverage / prediction interval width mean for TimeSeriesRegressor: " "\nEnbPI without any update:" f"{coverage_n_update_enbpi:.3f}, {width_n_update_enbpi:.3f}" ) print( "Coverage / prediction interval width mean for TimeSeriesRegressor: " "\nEnbPI with update:" f"{coverage_update_enbpi:.3f}, {width_update_enbpi:.3f}" ) enbpi_no_update = { "y_pred": y_pred_n_update_enbpi, "y_pis": y_pis_n_update_enbpi, "coverage": coverage_n_update_enbpi, "width": width_n_update_enbpi, } enbpi_update = { "y_pred": y_pred_update_enbpi, "y_pis": y_pis_update_enbpi, "coverage": coverage_update_enbpi, "width": width_update_enbpi, } results = [enbpi_no_update, enbpi_update] # Plot estimated prediction intervals on test set fig, axs = plt.subplots( nrows=2, ncols=1, figsize=(15, 12), sharex="col" ) for i, (ax, w, result) in enumerate( zip(axs, ["EnbPI, without update", "EnbPI with update"], results) ): ax.set_ylabel("Hourly demand (GW)", fontsize=20) ax.plot(demand_test.Demand, lw=2, label="Test data", c="C1") ax.plot( demand_test.index, result["y_pred"], lw=2, c="C2", label="Predictions", ) y_pis = cast(NDArray, result["y_pis"]) ax.fill_between( demand_test.index, y_pis[:, 0, 0], y_pis[:, 1, 0], color="C2", alpha=0.2, label="TimeSeriesRegressor PIs", ) ax.set_title( w + "\n" f"Coverage:{result['coverage']:.3f} Width:{result['width']:.3f}", fontweight="bold", size=20 ) plt.xticks(size=15, rotation=45) plt.yticks(size=15) axs[0].legend(prop={'size': 22}) plt.show() .. rst-class:: sphx-glr-timing **Total running time of the script:** ( 0 minutes 7.284 seconds) .. _sphx_glr_download_examples_regression_2-advanced-analysis_plot_timeseries_enbpi.py: .. only :: html .. container:: sphx-glr-footer :class: sphx-glr-footer-example .. container:: sphx-glr-download sphx-glr-download-python :download:`Download Python source code: plot_timeseries_enbpi.py ` .. container:: sphx-glr-download sphx-glr-download-jupyter :download:`Download Jupyter notebook: plot_timeseries_enbpi.ipynb ` .. only:: html .. rst-class:: sphx-glr-signature `Gallery generated by Sphinx-Gallery `_